Tracing the Pathways from Research to Innovation: Evidence from Case Studies

The complex process through which agricultural research stimulates innovation and achieves policy goals has commonly been treated as a ‘black box’ in the scientific literature. Statistical correlations between measured expenditure and impacts, where satisfactorily established, have mostly led to details of the research and innovation system being ignored. However, identifying and exploring causal chains of impact propagation can strengthen agricultural innovation. IMPRESA investigated impact mechanisms for research‐based innovations in six case studies using a Participatory Impact Pathway Assessment approach. Several suggestions result for improving performance and public support for agricultural research. Planning for impact is needed at the design phase of research so that expected advances in technology and their consequences can be explored. At that stage and throughout the research process, soft social skills are required to promote uptake. Greater impact can be achieved through the close involvement of key public and private sector stakeholders, using stakeholder mapping as a supporting tool. There is a strong argument for the close involvement of relevant social scientists and professional facilitators from the design phase of research through to its ultimate impacts. Funding frameworks and the specification of calls for tenders would function more effectively by giving more flexibility for stakeholder engagement.     

Robust Small Area Estimation under Spatial Non‐stationarity

The effective use of spatial information in a regression‐based approach to small area estimation is an important practical issue. One approach to account for geographic information is by extending the linear mixed model to allow for spatially correlated random area effects. An alternative is to include the spatial information by a non‐parametric mixed models. Another option is geographic weighted regression where the model coefficients vary spatially across the geography of interest. Although these approaches are useful for estimating small area means efficiently under strict parametric assumptions, they can be sensitive to outliers. In this paper, we propose robust extensions of the geographically weighted empirical best linear unbiased predictor. In particular, we introduce robust projective and predictive estimators under spatial non‐stationarity. Mean squared error estimation is performed by two analytic approaches that account for the spatial structure in the data. Model‐based simulations show that the methodology proposed often leads to more efficient estimators. Furthermore, the analytic mean squared error estimators introduced have appealing properties in terms of stability and bias. Finally, we demonstrate in the application that the new methodology is a good choice for producing estimates for average rent prices of apartments in urban planning areas in Berlin.     

Measuring the size of the shadow economy in 30 provinces of China over 1995–2016: The MIMIC approach

Applying the multiple indicators and multiple causes (MIMIC) approach, the present paper measured the size of the shadow economies in China's provinces over 1995–2016. The results show that the average size of the shadow economy in 30 provinces of China increased from 13.55% in 1995 to 14.39% in 2009, and then decreased to 12.30% in 2016. There are obvious variations in the size of the shadow economies in different districts of China. The average size of the shadow economy is lowest in provinces in the eastern district and highest in the western district. In addition, the causes and consequences of the shadow economies in China's provinces have also been analysed using the MIMIC approach, and the results show that tax burden, complexity of the tax system, intensity of regulation, unemployment, employment in the agricultural sector and economic openness have significant positive effects on China's shadow economy, while the ratio of direct taxes to indirect taxes, fiscal autonomy and income levels have significant negative effects on China's shadow economy. Using the growth rate of energy consumption as the benchmark indicator, the MIMIC analysis shows that the shadow economy has significant positive effects on the development of the official economy and income inequality while having a significant negative effect on the labour participation rate.     

Popular Urbanization: Conceptualizing Urbanization Processes Beyond Informality

This article introduces the concept of popular urbanization to describe a specific urbanization process based on collective initiatives, self-organization and the activities of inhabitants. We understand popular urbanization as an urban strategy through which an urban territory is produced, transformed and appropriated by the people. This concept results from a theoretically guided and empirically grounded comparison of Mexico City, Istanbul and Lagos. Based on postcolonial critiques of urban theory and on the epistemologies of planetary urbanization, we bring urbanization processes in these urban regions into conversation with each other through a multidimensional theoretical framework inspired by Henri Lefebvre focusing on material interaction, territorial regulation, and everyday experience. In this way, popular urbanization emerged as a distinct urbanization process, which we identified in all three contexts. While this process is often subsumed under the broader concept of ‘urban informality’, we suggest that it may be helpful to distinguish popular urbanization as primarily led by the people, while commodification and state agencies play minor roles. As popular urbanization unfolds in diverse ways dependent upon the wider urban context, specific political constellations and actions, it results in a variety of spatial outcomes and temporal trajectories. This is therefore a revisable and open concept. In proposing the concept of popular urbanization for further examination, we seek to contribute to the collective development of a decentered vocabulary of urbanization.     

Poverty and the shadow economy: The role of governmental institutions

This paper examines the impact of poverty on the size of the shadow economy using cross-country panel data for over 100 countries for the period 1991–2015. The results show that poverty has a positive and significant effect on the size of the shadow economy. Furthermore, we argue that the quality and size of governmental institutions matter in moderating the impact of poverty on the shadow economy. Considering the interactions between poverty and government quality and size, we find that poverty has the largest effect on the size of the shadow economy when government quality is the lowest and the size of the government is the largest. These results withstand a battery of robustness checks.     

Origins of reform resistance and the Southern European regime

With a particular interest for Southern Europe, this contribution develops a classification of obstacles to economic policy reforms. This classification covers approaches ranging from classical economics and political-economic explanations to more innovative explanations linked to behavioral economics. The subsequent part analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively to which extent the “Southern European regime” may imply a particular relevance of some of the potential reform obstacles classified before. We derive “reform ability profiles” which quantify several of the reform obstacles (or reform drivers) to compare EU countries in their likely reform predisposition. These profiles confirm particular Southern European weaknesses which tend to reduce the political-economic feasibility of long-term reforms: a low effectiveness in poverty protection, high intertemporal discounting and uncertainty avoidance, a poor information level of the population and deeply shattered trust in national institutions. In a microeconometric analysis based on Eurobarometer survey data, the analysis leaves the highly aggregated level and looks into the individual heterogeneity in reform acceptance. It is shown that several of the reform obstacles identified in theory are also empirically correlated with the individual inclination to accept reforms.     

THE ECONOMICS OF COUNTERTERRORISM: A SURVEY

We provide a review of theoretical and empirical contributions on the economic analysis of terrorism and counterterrorism. We argue that simple rational‐choice models of terrorist behavior – in the form of cost‐benefit models – already provide a well‐founded theoretical framework for the study of terrorism and counterterrorism. We also hint at their limitations which relate to the failure of accounting for the dynamics between terrorism and counterterrorism that may produce unintended second‐order effects as well as for the costs associated with counterterrorism and its international dimension. We reevaluate previously proposed counterterrorism strategies accordingly. Finally, in the light of our findings, we discuss interesting areas of future research.     

PUBLIC GOODS AND THE DISSOLUTION OF STATES

We present a simple model of the dissolution of states. We combine elements of the literature on the break‐up and integration of states based on models in the fiscal federalism tradition, with elements of the literature that explains the determination of a state's political institutions as a means to credibly promise redistributions in the face of costly, perhaps violent, redistributive conflict. We are able to characterize when the equilibrium involves the dissolution of a country, and when it involves continued unity. We are also able to explore some aspects of the linkages between political institutions and the determination of national boundaries.     

Using segment level stability to select target segments in data-driven market segmentation studies

Market segmentation is widely used by industry to select the most promising target segment. Most organisations are interested in finding one or a small number of target segments to focus on. Yet, traditional criteria used to select a segmentation solution assess the global quality of the segmentation solution. This approach comes at the risk of selecting a segmentation solution with good overall quality criteria which, however, does not contain groups of consumers representing particularly attractive target segments. The approach we propose helps managers to identify segmentation solutions containing attractive individual segments (e.g., more profitable), irrespective of the quality of the global segmentation solution. We demonstrate the functioning of the newly proposed criteria using two empirical data sets. The new criteria prove to be able to identify segmentation solutions containing individual attractive segments which are not detected using traditional quality criteria for the overall segmentation solution.     

Monopsony in the Labor Market,Minimum Wages and the Time Horizon: Some Unresolved Issues

This article discusses development of optimal solutions for monopsony in the labour market for the long run (when labour and capital are both flexible). It is shown that binding minimum wages up to a certain degree pushes the monopsonists to choose a high capital intensity of production, just as high as or even higher than that chosen when there is no regulation for minimum wages. Thereby, we demonstrate the existence of re-switching effects in the tradition of Piero Sraffa. The second part of the paper recalculates and analyzes earlier results by making use of the rather general constant elasticity of substitution production function. Based on a numerical solution for optimal monopsony under different regimes (no minimum wage, minimum wages of different values, etc.), we formulate a two-period game between the government and the monopsonistic firm (‘minimum wage game’). Finally, we analyze the relationship between the elasticity of substitution on the one hand and likely levels of employment on the other hand, after introduction of minimum wages.